3 years ago
Friday, December 25, 2009
Thursday, December 24, 2009
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Monday, December 21, 2009
Saturday, December 19, 2009
The Fourth Sunday of Advent 2009
From Agnus Day
But you, O Bethlehem Ephrathah,
who are little to be among the clans of Judah,
from you shall come forth for me one who is to be ruler in Israel,
whose origin is from of old, from ancient days.
Therefore he shall give them up until the time
when she who is in travail has brought forth;
then the rest of his brethren shall return to the people of Israel.
And he shall stand and feed his flock in the strength of the LORD,
in the majesty of the name of the LORD his God.
And they shall dwell secure,
for now he shall be great to the ends of the earth.
Micah 5:2-4
The truly strong do not need to show the trappings of strength. The LORD, often acts from weakness, showing his strength by making the seemly impossible happen without fanfare. The Son of God came to earth to become man starting as an unborn child and born to lowly parents in the least of the towns of Judah.
But He saves the world from it’s sins, calls His people home and
And they shall dwell secure,
Friday, December 18, 2009
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Afganistan:Looking at the Surge
Now that President Obama has make His decision to surge* in Afganistan, it is a good time to look at what we can expect. Our forces and those of are allies are streched thin with little in country reserves. It seems there will be a major Taliban offensive come spring, if they don't launch one we will. The surge should provide the troops to deal with it, and counter attack. Personally I think 30,000 (four maybe five regimental/brigade combat teams with support troops) is to few but that is as much as will be available to move by spring. More will certainly need to follow especially to take advantage of what develops by summer. The enemy has no way to develop his actions to Mao Zetung’s mobile phase where they could win a purely military victory. Without doing that they will lose unless the we get tired or lose patience and withdraw. They will try to deny us access to the civilian population and ware down our will to fight and hope they can cause enough hurt that the President will cut his losses in August 2011. The fighting will be in Afghanistan the real war will be in for the hearts and minds of the American political establishment.
[* I do not really like using the word "surge" here. The surge in Iraq was in response to a specific operational situation, Afganistan is a very different and less tractable opertional situation. THis could produce false expectations.]
Some good articles on what to expect.
From General Crystal’s assessment supporting the request for 40,000 additional troops.
The situation in Afghanistan is serious; neither success nor failure can be taken for granted. Although considerable effort and sacrifice have resulted in some progress, many indicators suggest the overall situation is deteriorating. We face not only a resilient and growing insurgency; there is also a crisis of confidence among Afghans -- in both their government and the international community - that undermines our credibility and emboldens the insurgents. Further, a perception that our resolve is uncertain makes Afghans reluctant to align with us against the insurgents.
Success is achievable, but it will not be attained simply by trying harder or "doubling down" on the previous strategy. Additional resources are required, but focusing on force or resource requirements misses the point entirely. The key take away from this assessment is the urgent need for a significant change to our strategy and the way that we think and operate.
snip
This is a different kind of fight. We must conduct classic counterinsurgency operations in an environment that is uniquely complex. Three regional insurgencies have intersected with a dynamic blend of local power struggles in a country damaged by 30 years of conflict. This makes for a situation that defies simple solutions or quick fixes. Success demands a comprehensive counterinsurgency (COIN) campaign.
Our strategy cannot be focused on seizing terrain or destroying insurgent forces; our objective must be the population. In the struggle to gain the support ofthe people, every action we take must enable this effort. The population also represents a powerful actor that can and must be leveraged in this complex system. Gaining their support will require a better understanding of the people's choices and needs. However, progress is hindered by the dual threat of a resilient insurgency and a crisis of confidence in the government and the international coalition. To win their support, we must protect the people from both of these threats.
Strategy Page is gives it’s description of the plan approved by President Obama.
American commanders believe the 30,000 additional U.S. troops, plus increases in Afghan and NATO forces, will enable the Taliban to be crushed within a year. But after that, Afghanistan will require economic and military assistance for at least twenty years, to bring sustained peace to the country. The plan is to turn over security to the central government within five years. Initially, through the middle of next year, there will be more violence. The Taliban and drug gangs will not go gently into the night. They will resist energetically, many choosing to fight to the death.
It continues with a background and assessment.
Michael Yon describes what he thinks will be one of the critical battles around Kandahar. I think this is good assessment of the opertaional problems, what will happen and what needs to be made to happen.
People are confused about the war. The situation is difficult to resolve even for those who are here. For most of us, the conflict remains out of focus, lacking reference of almost any sort.
Thus he begins an overview of the strategic/operational situation in Afghanistan. I doubt you will find a better analysis.
The most we can do is pay attention, study hard, and try to bring something into focus that is always rolling, yawing, and seemingly changing course randomly, in more dimensions than even astronauts must consider. All while gauging dozens of factors, such as Afghan Opinion, Coalition Will, Enemy Will and Capacity, Resources, Regional Actors (and, of course, the Thoroughly Unexpected). Nobody will ever understand all these dynamic factors and track them at once and through time. That’s the bad news.
The good news is that a tiger doesn’t need to completely understand the jungle to survive, navigate, and then dominate. It is not necessary to know every anthropological and historical nuance of the people here. If that were the case, our Coalition of over forty nations would not exist. More important is to realize that they are humans like us. They get hungry, happy, sad, and angry; they make friends and enemies (to the Nth degree); they are neither supermen nor vermin. They’re just people.
Snip
President Obama and NATO will plan to send tens of thousands more troops. The big fight shaping up will likely unfold in the south, in places like Helmand, Kandahar, and to a much lesser extent, Zabul, and also in other eastern provinces. We could use far more troops, and so other places will be left to fester, but the surge and change of course might be enough to turn the war around. We will find out.
Russians say we repeat their mistakes but they are wrong. The Soviets employed true scorched-earth tactics—the same tactics that many armchair commanders at home would like to employ. Every time the Soviets whacked the Afghan hive, more hornets raged out. Soviets bullied their way around places like Hungary and Czechoslovakia, and were fantastically brutal in Afghanistan, using all the fire they could breathe. Their “Rules of Engagement,” if any, were probably more concerned with conserving ammunition. They tortured.
Soviet abuses enflamed the population and combat ranged from north to south—with much occurring in Kandahar Province, the capital of which is Kandahar City. The Soviets fought in places like Bamian, where today Americans can literally go on vacation. The Lithuanian Ambassador to Afghanistan told me he took some holidays in Bamian and loved it. Last year, I drove about a thousand miles from Jalalabad to Kabul to Mazar-i-Sharif and back, and other places, with no problems and no soldiers. Most of the country is not at war. Much of this is a result of our strict “Rules of Engagement” (ROE) which seems to be driving people crazy at home (and many soldiers, too). Many soldiers hate these new ROE, and there is little doubt that we will lose troops due to restrictive ROE. My own thoughts are of little relevance.
He describes the Green zone, the river valleys that have vegetation compared to the vast surrounding desert. This is where the people live and is what must be controlled.
The Green Zone to the right [in his Earth Google shot] is caused by the Arghandab River, just next to Kandahar. The Taliban want Kandahar and are in a good position to get it. The year 2010 likely will mark a true Battle for Kandahar, though it probably will not be punctuated by the sort of pitched battles we saw in places like Mosul and Baghdad. This remains unknown.
Armies from at least three countries have ventured into the Arghandab River Valley: British, followed by Soviets, and more recently Canadians; all were unsuccessful.
Snip
Since the 2001 invasion, U.S. soldiers have come and gone from the Arghandab, but we’ve never had enough soldiers to sit still. More recently, the Canadians made jabs at Arghandab but did not get far. Some people believe the Canadians have been militarily defeated in their battlespace. No US officer has told me that the Canadians have been defeated, and none have denied it. There is no doubt that Canadian troops earned much respect, and that more than 130 paid the ultimate price.
On current course, Canada will have fully retreated by 2011. This is crucial: the enemy realizes that our greatest weakness is Coalition cohesion and they have defeated what was an important partner.
Now it’s mostly down to the U.S. and Afghan forces to saddle Arghandab, or lose Kandahar and if Kandahar probably the war.
A sobering analysis. On the positive side with enough troops and time a positive engagement strategy winning is possible. On the negative side lack of resources, impatience, or allowing frustration and anger to develop into excessive force, can bring defeat.
Read the whole article. I think it will provide a good filter to to view news reports of military action over the next year or so.
HT: Instapundit
For a lower level look at what the battle will be like see his report on embedding with the 2d Battalion of the British Rifle Regiment which seems to be too small of a unit for it’s mission.
Another key part of the battle will be carrying the war to the enemy which will mostly be Special Operations action. The London Telegraph gives a sanitized summary of what will happen.
It will be a tough year.
See also
Maothought or Who is Winning
Obama Says Bomb ’em
Les Solidat Americain dan Afganistan
East Meets West - President Obama in the Middle East
Mr President - Make a Decision
It's Now Obama's War
All my Afganistan posts.
[* I do not really like using the word "surge" here. The surge in Iraq was in response to a specific operational situation, Afganistan is a very different and less tractable opertional situation. THis could produce false expectations.]
Some good articles on what to expect.
From General Crystal’s assessment supporting the request for 40,000 additional troops.
The situation in Afghanistan is serious; neither success nor failure can be taken for granted. Although considerable effort and sacrifice have resulted in some progress, many indicators suggest the overall situation is deteriorating. We face not only a resilient and growing insurgency; there is also a crisis of confidence among Afghans -- in both their government and the international community - that undermines our credibility and emboldens the insurgents. Further, a perception that our resolve is uncertain makes Afghans reluctant to align with us against the insurgents.
Success is achievable, but it will not be attained simply by trying harder or "doubling down" on the previous strategy. Additional resources are required, but focusing on force or resource requirements misses the point entirely. The key take away from this assessment is the urgent need for a significant change to our strategy and the way that we think and operate.
snip
This is a different kind of fight. We must conduct classic counterinsurgency operations in an environment that is uniquely complex. Three regional insurgencies have intersected with a dynamic blend of local power struggles in a country damaged by 30 years of conflict. This makes for a situation that defies simple solutions or quick fixes. Success demands a comprehensive counterinsurgency (COIN) campaign.
Our strategy cannot be focused on seizing terrain or destroying insurgent forces; our objective must be the population. In the struggle to gain the support ofthe people, every action we take must enable this effort. The population also represents a powerful actor that can and must be leveraged in this complex system. Gaining their support will require a better understanding of the people's choices and needs. However, progress is hindered by the dual threat of a resilient insurgency and a crisis of confidence in the government and the international coalition. To win their support, we must protect the people from both of these threats.
Strategy Page is gives it’s description of the plan approved by President Obama.
American commanders believe the 30,000 additional U.S. troops, plus increases in Afghan and NATO forces, will enable the Taliban to be crushed within a year. But after that, Afghanistan will require economic and military assistance for at least twenty years, to bring sustained peace to the country. The plan is to turn over security to the central government within five years. Initially, through the middle of next year, there will be more violence. The Taliban and drug gangs will not go gently into the night. They will resist energetically, many choosing to fight to the death.
It continues with a background and assessment.
Michael Yon describes what he thinks will be one of the critical battles around Kandahar. I think this is good assessment of the opertaional problems, what will happen and what needs to be made to happen.
People are confused about the war. The situation is difficult to resolve even for those who are here. For most of us, the conflict remains out of focus, lacking reference of almost any sort.
Thus he begins an overview of the strategic/operational situation in Afghanistan. I doubt you will find a better analysis.
The most we can do is pay attention, study hard, and try to bring something into focus that is always rolling, yawing, and seemingly changing course randomly, in more dimensions than even astronauts must consider. All while gauging dozens of factors, such as Afghan Opinion, Coalition Will, Enemy Will and Capacity, Resources, Regional Actors (and, of course, the Thoroughly Unexpected). Nobody will ever understand all these dynamic factors and track them at once and through time. That’s the bad news.
The good news is that a tiger doesn’t need to completely understand the jungle to survive, navigate, and then dominate. It is not necessary to know every anthropological and historical nuance of the people here. If that were the case, our Coalition of over forty nations would not exist. More important is to realize that they are humans like us. They get hungry, happy, sad, and angry; they make friends and enemies (to the Nth degree); they are neither supermen nor vermin. They’re just people.
Snip
President Obama and NATO will plan to send tens of thousands more troops. The big fight shaping up will likely unfold in the south, in places like Helmand, Kandahar, and to a much lesser extent, Zabul, and also in other eastern provinces. We could use far more troops, and so other places will be left to fester, but the surge and change of course might be enough to turn the war around. We will find out.
Russians say we repeat their mistakes but they are wrong. The Soviets employed true scorched-earth tactics—the same tactics that many armchair commanders at home would like to employ. Every time the Soviets whacked the Afghan hive, more hornets raged out. Soviets bullied their way around places like Hungary and Czechoslovakia, and were fantastically brutal in Afghanistan, using all the fire they could breathe. Their “Rules of Engagement,” if any, were probably more concerned with conserving ammunition. They tortured.
Soviet abuses enflamed the population and combat ranged from north to south—with much occurring in Kandahar Province, the capital of which is Kandahar City. The Soviets fought in places like Bamian, where today Americans can literally go on vacation. The Lithuanian Ambassador to Afghanistan told me he took some holidays in Bamian and loved it. Last year, I drove about a thousand miles from Jalalabad to Kabul to Mazar-i-Sharif and back, and other places, with no problems and no soldiers. Most of the country is not at war. Much of this is a result of our strict “Rules of Engagement” (ROE) which seems to be driving people crazy at home (and many soldiers, too). Many soldiers hate these new ROE, and there is little doubt that we will lose troops due to restrictive ROE. My own thoughts are of little relevance.
He describes the Green zone, the river valleys that have vegetation compared to the vast surrounding desert. This is where the people live and is what must be controlled.
The Green Zone to the right [in his Earth Google shot] is caused by the Arghandab River, just next to Kandahar. The Taliban want Kandahar and are in a good position to get it. The year 2010 likely will mark a true Battle for Kandahar, though it probably will not be punctuated by the sort of pitched battles we saw in places like Mosul and Baghdad. This remains unknown.
Armies from at least three countries have ventured into the Arghandab River Valley: British, followed by Soviets, and more recently Canadians; all were unsuccessful.
Snip
Since the 2001 invasion, U.S. soldiers have come and gone from the Arghandab, but we’ve never had enough soldiers to sit still. More recently, the Canadians made jabs at Arghandab but did not get far. Some people believe the Canadians have been militarily defeated in their battlespace. No US officer has told me that the Canadians have been defeated, and none have denied it. There is no doubt that Canadian troops earned much respect, and that more than 130 paid the ultimate price.
On current course, Canada will have fully retreated by 2011. This is crucial: the enemy realizes that our greatest weakness is Coalition cohesion and they have defeated what was an important partner.
Now it’s mostly down to the U.S. and Afghan forces to saddle Arghandab, or lose Kandahar and if Kandahar probably the war.
A sobering analysis. On the positive side with enough troops and time a positive engagement strategy winning is possible. On the negative side lack of resources, impatience, or allowing frustration and anger to develop into excessive force, can bring defeat.
Read the whole article. I think it will provide a good filter to to view news reports of military action over the next year or so.
HT: Instapundit
For a lower level look at what the battle will be like see his report on embedding with the 2d Battalion of the British Rifle Regiment which seems to be too small of a unit for it’s mission.
Another key part of the battle will be carrying the war to the enemy which will mostly be Special Operations action. The London Telegraph gives a sanitized summary of what will happen.
It will be a tough year.
See also
Maothought or Who is Winning
Obama Says Bomb ’em
Les Solidat Americain dan Afganistan
East Meets West - President Obama in the Middle East
Mr President - Make a Decision
It's Now Obama's War
All my Afganistan posts.
Sunday, December 13, 2009
The Third Sunday Of Advent - 2009
From Agnus DayShout for joy, daughter of Zion,
Israel, shout aloud!
Rejoice, exult with all your heart,
daughter of Jerusalem!
The Lord has repealed your sentence;
he has driven your enemies away.
The Lord, the king of Israel, is in your midst;
you have no more evil to fear.
When that day comes, word will come to Jerusalem:
Zion, have no fear,
do not let your hands fall limp.
The Lord your God is in your midst,
a victorious warrior.
He will exult with joy over you,
he will renew you by his love;
he will dance with shouts of joy for you
as on a day of festival.
Zephaniah 3:14-18
Today is Guadette Sunday from the Entrance verse that begins today’s mass.
“Rejoice (Gaudette) in the Lord always; again I say, rejoice! The Lord is near.
Philippians 4:4-5
Zephaniah is reminding the exiles in Babylon that the LORD has forgiven and they will be restored to Zion and to rejoice. Paul, is reminding the Philipians to rejoince in our salvation. Today the Church reminds that like the exiles we have been redeemed by Christ and we should rejoice, first to celebrate His birth at Christmas and also our salvation in the Lord.
Rejoice in the Lord always; again I say, rejoice!
Saturday, December 12, 2009
Sunday, December 06, 2009
The Second Sunday of Advent - 2009
From Agnus DayTake off the garment of your sorrow and affliction, O Jerusalem,
and put on for ever the beauty of the glory from God.
Put on the robe of the righteousness from God;
put on your head the diadem of the glory of the Everlasting.
For God will show your splendor everywhere under heaven.
For your name will for ever be called by God,
"Peace of righteousness and glory of godliness."
Arise, O Jerusalem, stand upon the height and look toward the east,
and see your children gathered from west and east,
at the word of the Holy One,
rejoicing that God has remembered them.
For they went forth from you on foot,
led away by their enemies;
but God will bring them back to you,
carried in glory, as on a royal throne.
For God has ordered that every high mountain and the everlasting hills be made low
and the valleys filled up, to make level ground,
so that Israel may walk safely in the glory of God.
The woods and every fragrant tree have shaded Israel at God's command.
For God will lead Israel with joy,
in the light of his glory,
with the mercy and righteousness that come from him.
Baruch 5:1-9
The book of Baruch was written as the people of Judah were being sent into exile in Babylon. This passage promises them that they will be restored to Judah and Jerusalem. In a larger sense it is a prophesy of the of Second Coming when the Righteous will dwell in the Glory of God. And a reminder that it is not just during the season of Advent we should be preparing to meet Jesus.
For God will lead Israel with joy,
in the light of his glory,
with the mercy and righteousness that come from him.
Saturday, December 05, 2009
The Feast of St. Nicholas of Myra
December 6th is the feast of St. Nicholas of Myra, Bishop and Confessor his generosity was legendary and as result his story morphed into Santa Claus.
He led the Church in Myra through the Diocletian persecution (304-314) the worst persecution of the Roman Empire. He was imprisoned for the faith. While I am sure he was as generous as legend says, he must have had a lot more substance than a jolly old elf.
source
He led the Church in Myra through the Diocletian persecution (304-314) the worst persecution of the Roman Empire. He was imprisoned for the faith. While I am sure he was as generous as legend says, he must have had a lot more substance than a jolly old elf.
source
Thursday, December 03, 2009
It's Now Obama’s War
Having suggested, with some sarcasm, that the President should make a decision on Afghanistan strategy, I am pleased to note that he has made a decision.
I listened last night on the radio to President Obama’s speech at West Point on our future course in Afghanistan . It came off with his usual excellent presentation, certainly it sounded better than the descriptions of many who saw in on television. The speech had all the right phrasing, aimed at middle of the political spectrum and full of phrases that with high emotional value to the center and right. These would have been more convincing if they were at least not inconsistent with the past perceptions of his personal philosophy.
Obama supporter Charli Carpenter at the Duck of Minerva “But I have some critical reactions too.” and Obama critic Elizabeth Scalia, the Anchoress at First Things “The president is doing the right thing, and he deserves props for it” provide very different but worth while commentary and limited round ups.
His presentation of the conflict’s background was reasonably good, though the nit pickers will have enough material to make them happy. He had the expected up and down playing of things that make the his administration look better and the Bush Administration look bad.
He is going to send thirty thousand of the forty thousand troops that General McChrystal requested, he expects to bring them and most of our troops home in eighteen months, a renewed emphasis on training the Afgan security forces, encouraging reforms in the Afghan Government. The emphasis was on battling al Qaeda, with only passing mention of the Taliban. And no “Blank Checks.”
From a domestic political point of view the eighteen months puts future decisions safely after the 2010 election but well before the 2012 election and is olive branch to his political base who wants a quick withdrawal.
The increase in troops is perquisite for any action if we are going to stay, though I think ultimately the total of the increase will be nearer eighty thousand rather than the forty thousand that was requested. Thirty thousand, in addition to giving the appearance that he is not just rubber stamping General McChrystal’s request, is probably near the maximum that can be deployed in the timeframe he gave, but “unnamed administration sources” are reporting that the amount could be increased. Unless the President has placed unreasonable restrictions on their use, this gives the flexibility General McCrystal needs to respond to and create events.
The primary action will be against the Taliban, while destroying al Qaeda was the reason we went there and is still a leading goal, the road to al Qaeda goes through the Taliban, we need to fight the Taliban to maintain the bases to attack al Qaeda, and in going into Afghanistan we assumed some responsibility for leaving the place better off than we found it, which requires defeating the Taliban. The essential “win the people” part of the insurgency campaign requires that we are in control of the places where the people live and can defend them.
Training and building the Afghan security forces to take over in eighteen months is not going to happen. From the time the US recruits 400 new soldiers, combines them with a cadre of experienced soldiers and graduates an infantry battalion out of the Nation Training Center is nine months. This is in ideal situations with recruits who have the educational background, and already having the experienced soldiers to form the cadre. Building effective security forces is essential, we are having some success but it will take a lot longer than eighteen months. The battalion that starts training today will in two or three years provide cadres for two or three battalions which in two or three more years will provide the cadre for more. That is a little pessimistic, there is some good cadre potential in the Afghanistan Army and not all the security forces need to be fully trained infantrymen, but eighteen months is not enough even if every thing goes well.
The reforms the in Afghan society the President is calling for are going to be as much or more dependent on military success as a perquisite. It will have to be a slow and steady pressure to reform, but pushing to hard and fast and without ensuring the security for them to remain in place will be coounter productive.
Field Marshal helmuth von Moltke (the Elder), said "No battle plan survives contact with the enemy." This plan will survive a little longer than the arrival of the troops, but it places the required resources on the ground - so the actual situation as it develops can be dealt with and also gives us the ability to create the satutation on the ground. Whether he realize it or not, the President has signed a blank check.
My Afghanistan topic.
I listened last night on the radio to President Obama’s speech at West Point on our future course in Afghanistan . It came off with his usual excellent presentation, certainly it sounded better than the descriptions of many who saw in on television. The speech had all the right phrasing, aimed at middle of the political spectrum and full of phrases that with high emotional value to the center and right. These would have been more convincing if they were at least not inconsistent with the past perceptions of his personal philosophy.
Obama supporter Charli Carpenter at the Duck of Minerva “But I have some critical reactions too.” and Obama critic Elizabeth Scalia, the Anchoress at First Things “The president is doing the right thing, and he deserves props for it” provide very different but worth while commentary and limited round ups.
His presentation of the conflict’s background was reasonably good, though the nit pickers will have enough material to make them happy. He had the expected up and down playing of things that make the his administration look better and the Bush Administration look bad.
He is going to send thirty thousand of the forty thousand troops that General McChrystal requested, he expects to bring them and most of our troops home in eighteen months, a renewed emphasis on training the Afgan security forces, encouraging reforms in the Afghan Government. The emphasis was on battling al Qaeda, with only passing mention of the Taliban. And no “Blank Checks.”
From a domestic political point of view the eighteen months puts future decisions safely after the 2010 election but well before the 2012 election and is olive branch to his political base who wants a quick withdrawal.
The increase in troops is perquisite for any action if we are going to stay, though I think ultimately the total of the increase will be nearer eighty thousand rather than the forty thousand that was requested. Thirty thousand, in addition to giving the appearance that he is not just rubber stamping General McChrystal’s request, is probably near the maximum that can be deployed in the timeframe he gave, but “unnamed administration sources” are reporting that the amount could be increased. Unless the President has placed unreasonable restrictions on their use, this gives the flexibility General McCrystal needs to respond to and create events.
The primary action will be against the Taliban, while destroying al Qaeda was the reason we went there and is still a leading goal, the road to al Qaeda goes through the Taliban, we need to fight the Taliban to maintain the bases to attack al Qaeda, and in going into Afghanistan we assumed some responsibility for leaving the place better off than we found it, which requires defeating the Taliban. The essential “win the people” part of the insurgency campaign requires that we are in control of the places where the people live and can defend them.
Training and building the Afghan security forces to take over in eighteen months is not going to happen. From the time the US recruits 400 new soldiers, combines them with a cadre of experienced soldiers and graduates an infantry battalion out of the Nation Training Center is nine months. This is in ideal situations with recruits who have the educational background, and already having the experienced soldiers to form the cadre. Building effective security forces is essential, we are having some success but it will take a lot longer than eighteen months. The battalion that starts training today will in two or three years provide cadres for two or three battalions which in two or three more years will provide the cadre for more. That is a little pessimistic, there is some good cadre potential in the Afghanistan Army and not all the security forces need to be fully trained infantrymen, but eighteen months is not enough even if every thing goes well.
The reforms the in Afghan society the President is calling for are going to be as much or more dependent on military success as a perquisite. It will have to be a slow and steady pressure to reform, but pushing to hard and fast and without ensuring the security for them to remain in place will be coounter productive.
Field Marshal helmuth von Moltke (the Elder), said "No battle plan survives contact with the enemy." This plan will survive a little longer than the arrival of the troops, but it places the required resources on the ground - so the actual situation as it develops can be dealt with and also gives us the ability to create the satutation on the ground. Whether he realize it or not, the President has signed a blank check.
My Afghanistan topic.
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