Friday, July 29, 2005

Discovered! The Cauuse of Terrorism.

The encyclopedic reference to juust about every thing, Baron Bodissey of the Gates of Vienna, tells uus abouut the “Ruut Cause of Terrorism!”

The best thing youu will read today.

Wednesday, July 27, 2005

Recycle Now ! ! ! ? ? ?

One day I was home from work sick and looked out the window as the garbage truck came by. They took the “recycle” containers and tossed the contents in the back of the truck, then tossed the regular garbage in the back of the truck, and every few houses compressed it all together.

Apparently the Chicago does it much better; there was an expose a few years ago. The recycle trucks and regular trucks picked up their separate loads and dropped them in the same dump. (Which is much better than the people who bribed the alderman to dump it anywhere, many of these individuals ended up as long-term guests of the Bureau of Prisons. I hope this is deterrent to others.).

Scott Kirwin of Deans World has a report from the bay area where they do process the recycling separately. He is wondering how much pollution the recycling process causes.

Disposing of waste is a serious issue. There are a number of things to be considered including whether the consequences of a given method are better or worse than the problem. In WWII tin and other things were collected from each house as part of the war effort. It was leaned later that most of this was unnecessary. Some may have been poor estimates at the beginning but most was an ”educational” program to get the home front involved in the war effort. Supporting recycling as an educational program to teach environmental awareness, does not protect the environment, and leaves people with a incorrect awareness of how to protect the environment.

Some one said serious work on understanding the environment cannot be done if you do not know differential calculus. (Differential calculus is used to solve problems with many interconnected variables which describes all but the simpelist environmental questions.) It would be better to insist that math be taught up to ones aptitude so there are people who can do serious work on the enviroment. The less talented will have enough ability to evaluate the question and act as resposible citizens. Environmental awareness should be taught by studying simpler problems that can be done with age appropriate math, not political indoctrination.


PERSONAL NOTE: What little calculus I needed in school I self-taught and forgoten, so I do not know differential calculus, I get to sit on the sidelines and complain rather than do serious work on the issue.

Wednesday, July 20, 2005

Imagine

John Lennon’s song Imagine proves he is a much better song writer than a philosopher. He sings:

Imagine all the people
living life in peace

. . .

You may say I’m a dreamer,
but I’m not the only one,


Well R.J. Rummel, Professor Emeritus of Political Science is imagining peace with good science and hard data rather then poor philosophy and dreams.

His life professional work was uncovering the root causes of war, and Democide which is detailed on his Power Kills web site. His major thesis is that the incidence of war and governmental mass goes down with the level of actual democracy in a country.

This week on his blog Freedoms Peace he has two here and here posts about visualizing (or imaginings) this concept graphically.

regression”
This regression analysis chart shows that as freedom (x axis) increases, insecurity decreases.

A major thesis of Dr Rummel’s is the Democratic Peace - that genuinely democratic countries do not go to war with each other. (Andrew Cory at at Dean’s World provides a good short summary.) A while back I checked the data on Rummel’s web site. If one takes the strictest definition of democracy his data showed a statistical 99% confidence level for this thesis. (Actually no exceptions is 100% but I would leave room for some weird case coming up.) Depending how much doubt one would accept for the borderline cases it would be a 90 to 95% confidence level. Political Science is a social science; this level of confidence is very atypical. His data agrees with what I know and could verify on the subject. While I do not have his fondness for categorical statements, I would have to consider the Democratic Peace thesis as well established as anything in the Social Sciences and better than most.


It seems that John Lennon might have got something right.


NOTE: I decided I did not like some of my word choices and edited it, The point is the same. 07/21/05

Shelters of Stone

Book Review:
Shelters of Stone
Jean M. Auel
Crown Publishers, 2002
Fan club


Twenty years ago Jean Auel published her first novel Clan of the Cave Bear set in Europe some 30,000 years ago. The premise was Ayla a girl who is physically a modern human is adopted into a tribe of Neanderthal men (The Clan) at the age of five after her own family and tribe was killed in an earthquake. Of special interest was the carefully researched background into what life was like 30,000 years ago. This has since grown into the Earth’s Children series. Shelters of Stone, is the latest chapter in Ayla story. .


The series to this point.
Ayla, discovered there was no place for her in the Clan she set out to find her own people. Along the way she discovers a new way to make fire, a spear thrower and how to domesticate animals. She has also learned much of the healing arts and has some sort of spiritual gifts. She meets Jondolar who was on a “Journey,” he set out from his tribe to see the world. They travel back to Jondolar’s tribe to be mated and settle down.


The story is of Jondolar’s homecomings and how Ayla is accepted into the Zelandonii. Ayla, as a foreigner, would be normally be the lowest status person, but Jondolar is the son of the former chief and brother of the current chief, which with his won accomplishments makes his a very high status person. His mate should be a high status person. Also the spiritual leaders recognize her gifts and want Ayla (who is not certain she wants to) to have high status so she can be inducted in to the spiritual leader ship. How this is resolved is the main plot of the book. There is also plenty of action as this hunting and gathering community struggles to survive in unforgiving ice age climate.

Like all Auel’s novels, she has thoroughly researched what life was like in southern France 30,000 years ago. Her descriptions of stone age live are very interesting and informative, but overdone to the point that they detract from the main story. I enjoyed them even so, but if they do not interest the reader they can be easily skipped. The anthropology/sociology of this Stone Age tribe seems to be remarkably “politically correct contemporary American.” Again with more detail than necessary. The religion is the presumed Goddess cult.


In Auel’s books the interest is in the incident and detail not the main story line, they are a much better read than one would suppose from a general description. This is good light summer reading, I picked it up because I began the series and became interested in the characters. Shelters of Stone can stand alone but I would recommend starting with Clan of the Cave Bear, which is by far the best in the series, and if you find the characters interesting continue to read the others. There are enough open plot lines for at least two sequels.

Saturday, July 16, 2005

Vacation

I had a great vacation visiting family and visiting historical sites.

If you get to western Virginia I would recommend traveling the Blue Ridge Parkway. It has some majestic views. Be sure you have a full tank. The road goes sideways more often than forward (at one point the GPS said 223 degrees on a road that goes northeast. I came to the gas station at the north end with less than a gallon.


I visited Antietam and Gettysburg battle fields. Looking at the ground sure makes the descriptions clearer. Antietam is a better stop in you can only go one place since it is not mobbed like Gettysburg.



At Antietam more soldiers were killed in single day than in any other battle in North America. Both there, and at Shiloh a few months earlier, more men were killed than in all the previous wars in US history. At this point both sides realized there would be no cheap and easy end to the war. This was General McClellan’s last battle. Like always he had a good plan, but at the end he refused to throw in his last force and allowed the Army of Northern Virginia to survive for three more years. The troops committed by both sides had fought to exhaustion but there were 30,000 uncommitted federal soldiers and the Confederates had no reserves left. A decisive attack would have destroyed or trapped the Confederates. Even if it did not end the war just then Virginia would have been lost to the confederacy along with it’s largest army.


Not having enough time to see every thing at Gettysburg I followed of the second day. Most of the action that day was the result of Sickles poor initial deployments, establishing a line that was to long for his Corp to defend but leaving Little Round Top, the most important terrain feature, undefended. The story of the 20th Maine is often told, how it changed direction under fire to face the Confederates. What does not really come across is how steep and rough that ground is. It looks like a 30% slope. Here also the Regular Army division was destroyed in the effort to save Sickles Corp. The guidebook says they retired in “perfect order.” A nice way to say that when the units next to them were forced off position, they withdrew maintaining formation and firing the whole way back. For the rest of the war they were reduced to a small brigade.
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