Friday, November 04, 2005

Paris is Burning.

Well the northern suburbs anyway.

Gateway Pundit has a good round up. The Assoicated press reports the riots are gaining momentum. They report that there has been a week of riots, which is about how long they have been reported with any prominence in the US. There are also riots in Dijon and in Demark. Nouvelobs reported on the October 19th, a week before the riots started,

Nicolas Sarkozy a annoncé mercredi 19 octobre le prochain déploiement dans les quartiers sensibles de 17 compagnies républicaines de sécurité (CRS) et de sept escadrons de gendarmes mobiles dans le cadre d'une "guerre sans merci" contre les violences urbaines.

Nicolas Sarkozy announced Wednesday October 19 the next deployment in the sensitive districts of 17 Republican Security Companies (CRS) and seven squadrons of Mobile Gendarmes to conduct a "war without mercy" against urban violence. (I cleaned up the Babel Fish translation)

This sounds a lot more serious than has been reported in the US.

Roger Simon has correspondence from an American in Paris.

Brian Dunn of Dignified Rant looks at some root causes.

Some Observations

Many years ago I was studying in Paris France. Over all it was a very positive experience.

One aspect that I did not like was the gross racism. A large number of foreign workers were imported from the former colonies, especially Algeria, to do all sorts of menial work. Paris apparently does not have pooper scooper laws, every day the Algerians were out on the street with large sweep brooms cleaning up Fido’s mess. The French treated the Algerians as lower than the merde de chien they were paid to sweep up.

I can see no justification for the riots in Paris. The people who live in these neighborhoods are going to be worse off no matter what happens, and probably their worst possobility is if the French Government backs down. However, I cannot help feeling the French are reaping what they sowed.


Europe, including France imports a much larger percentage of their oil than the US, and a larger portion of that is from the Middle East. Europe needs to buy cheap oil, which is heavily taxed to fund the welfare state. Also much Arab oil profits are invested in Europe, and he who pays the fiddler calls the tune. The riots put the French in a bind, they need to restore order, but to harsh a policy risks annoying the Arab oil governments, which is close to financial suicide in an economy that is not to healthy to begin with.


The Progressive Multicultural worldview of the French elites has hurt on the French working classes. There is massive unemployment but where there are jobs they are held for less wages by immigrants. The crime problems that came with the immigrants fell mostly on the working class. The elites policies also lock the immigrants in ghettos with even worse unempolyment lower wages and serious crime. French society has two large groups that at least do not like each other and blame each other for their problems. The French elites have been (positive) following a well-intentioned policy that is irrelevant to the concerns and needs of both groups, or (negative) playing a cynical game of both ends against the middle to maintain power. Take your pick.


The French Police structure is interesting. Directly related to current events is the riot police, Compagnies Républicaines de Sécurité (CRS). When I was there they had a reputation as being tough, effective, and disregarding human rights. Most of the worlds riot police were issued riot clubs or bayoneted rifles; the CRS were allegedly issued sub-machine guns because they were expected to use them. But the reputation was enough so that if several buses of CRS parked a few blocks from a demonstration it suddenly became more peaceful and dispersed after a face saving period of time. Whilw part of the Naitonal Police they are organized on a military basis, whin I was there most of the manpower was consripted. The NCO’s did not worry me too much, they knew what they were doing and if you were not the subject of their orders you shouldn’t have a problem. What scared me most was the troops: nervous 19 year old conscripts, who given the short term of service could not have excessive amounts of training, and armed with sub-machine guns, hopefully that has improved. That year there was a general strike in Paris. One evening walking home I saw the CRS with sirens blaring going the same direction I was, I turned around and walked an extra mile to get home.


Guesses on future events

Riots do not happen in cold weather unless there is a genuine food or heat shortage. These riots will be over by December.

By next summer, unless Chriac can pull off something beyond his demonstrated ability, the pent up anger will be like gasoline waiting for spark. In June and July when the temperatures get into the 90 degree range, a trivial event will cause a blow up. And Jihadists will be much better placed to exploit the situation.

If the CRS looses its reputation for toughness and effectiveness, there will be much more violence in France next summer, and not just by Moslem immigrants. If CRS busses in the city are not enough to discourage a rioters etc. the French government will have to use them in situations that would otherwise have defused themselves. I doubt the troubles will be confined to France or they might start elsewhere and spred to France.

The worst case would be a repeat of the Battle of Grozny in the First Chechen war. But once done this is a known problem, it didn’t work at Fulajah and it won’t work in France unless the French lose their nerve.

The summer of 2006 in Europe will be a hot one in more ways than one.

After temporizing with multicultural lip service and mending fences with oil providers, the French Government will remember that in the ultimate extremity a government that will not shoot dissidents in the street will be replaced by one that does. The crack down will be brutal.

Long term I see two possibilities,

1) Europe will be ripped apart at the seams.
2) Just as the US and Canada are said to have developed a national identity because of the War of 1812, this could forge a genuine European identity that will make the European Union a de facto entity as well as a de jure. A very high price to pay for European unity. If this results in replacing the current political leadership with people who have more realistic world view Europe may achieve the dream of the original founders of the Common Market.

Note: I enjoyed my time in France and I do like the French. Pray for Peace in France and the safety of everyone there.

1 comment:

Bob said...

It seems that there has been disturbances in Germany, Belgium, and Denmark as well. This is on the heels of the defeat of Spain and the attacks against England. Maybe we could agree that there is a worldwide struggle against terror. Personally, I believe that the Koran commands either the conversion of non-muslims or the extermination of them.

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