I took the General Election Polling Results for the the candidates at Rassmusen Reports and copied them into a spread sheet starting from June Fourth, the first entry after Senator Clinton placed her campaign in inactive status. I averaged the results for each day with an average of the previous ten days. (The entry for the fourteenth is an average of the Fourth to the Fourteenth, the entry for the Fifteenth is an average of the Fifth to the Fifteenth) This smoothes the results eliminating minor day to day variances in public opinion or errors in a particular days samplings. The disadvantage of this method is it is not very sensitive to the last several day’s results.
On July 22d
Match up without leaners
McCain 42% Obama 46%
Match up with leaners
McCain 46% Obama 47%
Senator McCain in the “with out leaners” column started at 40% occasionally at 41% until July Eleventh when it stated at 41% and has progressed to 42%. In the “With leaners” column he was at 44% every day until the Thirteenth when he increased to 45% and then 46%
SenatorObama in the “without leaners” column started at 46% and occasionally hit 47% but since the twelfth has dropped to 45% and 44 % for the last three days. In the “With leaners” column he started at 49% and except for an occasional 48% held that until the Twelfth when he went to 48% and 47& since the Seventeenth.
Both candidates have had about equal number leaners over non-leaners, orgianlly McCain had slightly higher numbers but Obama now has the largest difference, but the difference has gone down in both cases.
In the ‘With Leaners” column 7% and occasionally 8% have been uncommitted.
It appears that after Senator Obama’s initial jump when Senator McCain suspended his campaign it is now settling into settled pattern with Senator Obama holding a slight lead. They both should get a short jump after their respective conventions.
Assuming neither one of the commits a major stupidity (as understood by the voters not the pundits) the election will be decided after the World Series by the uncommitted voters. Conventional wisdom says they will break in proportion to the declared support for each candidate in the polls. This year is so strange I would not bet on it. The uncommitted voters usually tune in for the conventions and the debates. How the candidates do there will be what makes up the uncommitted voters minds
I did the same analysis for the 2004 election; it was even closer with President Bush always maintaining a slight lead which with the uncommitted breaking proportionally and the numbers were within a very narrow range from the final result.
The other daily tacking and poll averaging services show similar results. The chart from Pollester dot com on lead post has consistently shown Senator Obama a point or so higher than most of the others.
It seems to me that it is Senator Obama’s election to lose, but a year ago the Democratic nomination was Senator Clinton’s to lose and Senator McCain was at the bottom of the list.
6 months ago