Saturday, August 23, 2008

Election Update - August

The Democratic Convention begins Monday. It is time to look at where we are at.

It has often been commented that when it comes to a nation wide vote for anything president, all congressman, all senators, all state legislators, or even all dog catchers for the last twenty or so years the Republicans have 45% and the democrats have 45% certain, the rest is in play. This “uncommitted” 10% do not follow politics closely except after the world series in presidential election years, and usually makes their decision on what they see during the conventions and Presidential debates, often for reasons of their own rather than what the politicians and pundits say they should. The two conventions and the three debates are the critical events, and then the election itself.

The polls have been relatively stable for a long time. Averaging it out it seems that both candidates are just above the 45% minimum with Senator Obama being a point or two higher, but well with in any margin of error. Over time McCain has been gaining slightly and Obama losing slightly. The uncommitted is 7% or some days 8 %. Which way they will go is anyone’s guess but at this point I would put the edge to Obama.

Rasmussen has updated their Electoral College Projections. The last time had Senator Obama with a winning 273 votes with 38 still undecided. Now it is undecided with Ohio moving to leans Republican and Virginia and Colorado in the undecided column. Ohio, Virginia, Colorado and Pennsylvania have recently been high lighted in Jay Costs Horse Race Blog as swing states. He provides a good look at how statewide and local considerations are effecting the election. This is especially important since the Rlectoral College votes by state.

Senator Obama has selected Senator Joesph Biden to be his running mate for Vice President. A good safe choice. Senator Biden has lots of positives that will resonate with persons who will vote for Obama anyway, and lots of negatives that will resonate wih people who would never vote for Obama. Biden is to unknown to have any impact on the non-political uncommitted voters who will decide the election.

The preseason warm-ups are over, the real contest is begins Monday.

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