Friday, October 31, 2008

Election 2008

*** NOTE ***
This post was the top post on the blog for the 16 or months prior to the 2008 Presidential election> Graphs and links were changed as the election situation changed.

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This post will remain on top until the election.
New posts below.


Vote early and vote often once



McCain v Obama - Click for full page

McCain vs Ovama


Real Clear Politics
Poll Averages
Horse Race Blog


Rasmussen
General Election Rolling Poll Results
Electoral College Projections
By the Numbers

Gallup
Gallup Daily


Official Campaign Sites
Obama ‘08 McCain ‘08


Charles Martin is providing a center for Govenor Palin
rumor control. Founded, Unfounded and who knows. If he debunks your favorite, start another.



This is an election, the other side is not the enemy. Let’s debate issues not stereotypes . The President is not my President or your President - he will be our President.

I have gone through my old posts and added posts that deal with election issues (or what should be election issues) to the topic.

Updated 10/20/2007 - 11/04/2007 - 12/25/2007 - 02/02/2008 - 02/06/2008 - 02/07/2008 - 02/16/2008 - 03/05/2008 - 03/10/2008 - 06/01/2008 - 07/20/2008 - 08/02/2008 - 09/08/2008

52 comments:

El Jefe Maximo said...

Funny, I've been terribly interested in government all my life, I'm the original wonk. I'm also interested in politics. . .save for that subspeceies called electoral politics as it has evolved in late 21st Century. I find the prospect of election season more revolting than interesting.

hank_F_M said...

El Jefe

Revolting, yes, but we are going to have to live with it until November the results even longer. But not as revolting as many of the candidates. But both parties right now are unstable coalitions: this race will be a major influence on how the things settle out for 20 years or more. Even more important than the candidates is whether both or even one of the parties ends up with responsible elements in charge.

I thought this would be a good place to keep track of trends and consolidate information. I have two good sources for solid polling data. RCP has good coverage of issues and Rasmussen usually has pretty sharp non-partisan analysis. Sort of one stop shopping.

Feel free to add anything interesting or relevant into the comments.

jackjoe said...

Love your political coverage. Probably a little shaky on your theology and religion. Jack

hank_F_M said...

Jack Joe

Thank you.

Feel free to come by any time.


Jack Joe

Thank you.

Feel free to come by any time.


When I was debating evangelicals a few years back they thought my theology religion was, well more than shaky, you could be right.

jackjoe said...

I AM not an evangelical. A radical catholic. Jack

hank_F_M said...

I know your not not an Evangical, I was attemping a little humor. Not too successfully I see.

I did visit your web site, you do present a good exposition of the Radical Catholic view point.

Of course the orginal meaning of Radical is rooted and I would hope that all Catholics are Radicaly rooted in Christ Jesus.

jackjoe said...

Thanks for visiting my site. It probably confuses you, because I seem all over the map. Since my entire family is catholic I will be in a week or so. I still think the Church is 'crazed' with sex. Being 74 with prostate cancer I have no personal ax to grind on the sex issues. Just memories. Still love your site. Do you have a personal preference for president in 08? Jack

hank_F_M said...

I was thinking of voting for my cat.

She is over thirty five in cat years
Was born in the US
And is smarter than the lot of them combined.

A cat for every home
A home for every cat
Catnip in every bowl

---------------------------

But she says she will not run if nominated and will not serve if elected. Like I said she’s smarter than the lot of them combined.


I suspect it will be one of those years where you hold your nose and vote for the least worst.

louielouie said...

the dem. curve is odd.
or i just don't understand polling.
with the corresponding rise of o-be-wan-abama there is no drop in other candidates numbers.
sort of like the polling is done in mid-air.
the repub. curve appears to reflect mccanins decline as thompsons accension and both are reflected on the guiliani curve as well.

hank_F_M said...

Louie

Thanks for dropping by.

They don't have a curve for that most popular of candidates "undecided". They were saying on the news today that the dem SC primary 49% are undecided.

There is still a large amount undecided who will probally vote. Always the possibility that something will motivate the might vote crowd.

jackjoe said...

Still check you every day. You're providing a real service. I know it's "in" to say all the candidates are bad. That, of course, is true for the Republicans. Jack

hank_F_M said...

Jackjoe

Thanks

I hear or read some the “instant analyses” on the radio and come back and check the numbers and have a good laugh. It is truly amazing how a glib manner can turn a minor blip into a major trend.


You might find this analysis of the candidate’s positions in light of the Bishops recent Faithful Citizenship statement. One could quibble about some of the generalizations he had to make to do the analysis but over all I think it's pretty good.

louielouie said...

this comment may be somewhat off-topic. get used to it hank, EJM I has tolerated them.
in the december 2007 issue of Maxim, on page 34, there is a series of questions answered by the new flavor of the month starlet. her name is mircea monroe.
one of the questions is "first political crush".
and while that is not a question, i'll bet you can already guess where this is going. and the leading purpose in the magazine.
anyway, this is her response.

Barack Obama is crazy sexy. I went to see him speak and I was like a f#cking kid at an 'N Sync concert. He shook my hand and i shouted, "I love your policy on health care!" I dont't even know what his health care policy is, but i wanted him to think i was smart. He smiled, and i swear to G-d, we had a moment.

now honestly i don't know which bothers me the most, this excrement for brains bimbo invoking a deity or the probability of the number of people who think just like her and/or want to be just like her.
we had a moment??????
geeezzzzz

hank_F_M said...

Louie

This is a low circulation blog most any comment is appreciated.

If you see a post that looks interesting feel free to recommend elsewhere.

louielouie said...

hhmmmmm.........
you deal in quality as opposed to quantity............interesting concept.

El Jefe Maximo said...

Huckabee is going up like a rocket. . .I don't see how the decline of Giuliani accounts for all of it. McCain and Thompason look to have done each other in.

hank_F_M said...

El Jefe

I’m sort of surprised myself. I didn’t expect him to go up so fast.


My guess is it is undecided making up their mind and “may vote” moving to “likely vote”

The leaders up to know have never been well received with the ‘social conservative” wing of the Republican Party. A lot were thinking of holding there nose to vote against Clinton or staying home. They are a lorge part of the foot soldiers, if they just vote but don’t get out and campaign the Republicans will be in trouble. The ones they might like were thought not to be able to win the nomination or election. Huckabee is convincing them their candidate and that he can at least win the nomination.

I doubt Huckabee will ever win the heart of the libertarian wing but he appears to at least acceptable elsewhere.

Even if he doesn’t get the nomination (still a long shot) he will make the point to the rest of the party that the party cannot write off the “social conservative” wing.

louielouie said...

more non-sense from me.
in the january 2008 issue of maxim, on pages 26/27, sy sperling, former president of the hair club for men has this to say about obama.

barack is one of the coolest dudes. he's got short hair, and it helps him appeal to everbody; whites, blacks, hispanics, upper-class, middle-class. there's not one candidate whose hair style really impresses me, but he's doing the smartest thing, with his hair.

next we'll have the candidates go before simon, paula, & randy for a final screening. i don't want to speculate about what james madison would say about our friends at maxim and their criteria in candidate selection.

hank_F_M said...

Louie

Being photogenic has always been one of his best assets. That and a pleasant personality.


He got anointed to the State Senate by the Chicago Democratic political machine. Everyone thought he was a nice middle of the road democrat. He had the one of the far leftist voting records of any one in that body. Didn’t do anything except follow orders and everyone was enraptured and thought him the wave of the future.

Well the Republicans aren’t much better their just not as good at it.

jackjoe said...

Thank you from Frank on jack/joe site. Jack checks you every day. He loves politics and can remember back to 1940. He wants me to ask you in what election for president did polls lose great credibility? A trivia question. Thanks for carry for me. Frank

hank_F_M said...

Jack Joe

Well there is 1948 with the prediction of Dewey as President.

And there is 1936, which missed by a large amount.
It seems they used car registrations and such to build the sample. In 1936 that was anything but a random sample.

Building random samples is difficult. That is why I link to some places above that average the polls. Hopefully one polls mistake one way will be balanced by another polls the other way.

One of you asked about modifying your blog over on Joe Cicils site. If you give me a more detailed explanation of what you are trying to accomplish, I’ll if I can find something for you. Also in the bottom of my side bar there is an HTML tutorial which has saved me many problems.

jackjoe FRANK said...

Of course 1948. But biggest miss was 1936 when the 'big' poll was Literary Digest, I believe, which had its subscribers send in preference. Jack

jackjoe FRANK said...

Hope you give some analysis on which poll was closet to outcome. I love polls but when they 'blow' it they offer no explanation. Wish someone would, like you. Jack

jackjoe FRANK said...

Hate to be a pest, but can't find bishop's statement. Frank really appreciated your comment. He's is going to do the religion and I'm goind to do the politics. Has a book ever been done on analysis of the accuracy of polls? Trivia question: What poll is said to be the only one predicting Truman victory in '48. If you have a few minutes might send Frank a word of encouragement. He is not the 'real' son of Alice and me, but is for all practical purposes. He was big highschool "wheel" but is really trying to do better. Jack

hank_F_M said...

I don't know what poll predicted the Truman victory in 48.


Defend life has the link to the Bishops statement on political responsibility, with come comments on differences from the last time.

He also has an evalution and revised evaluation of the candidates positions in light of the docuement.

Read with care. The Bishops use the language of the Churchs social justice teaching, The candidates of contempory political usiage in the US. They are not same and the same word can have different meanings. Not a problem if you know to pay attention.

jackjoe FRANK said...

I believe it was the Harris Poll. But always subject to correction. Jack

Diodotus said...

I have been meaning to thank you for keeping the polling data on the front page. Tres useful.

hank_F_M said...

Diodotus

Thank You.

louielouie said...

read the rasmussen poll.
don't guess okieland counts.
i'm sure those south of the red would agree, but i thought the electorial college counted us all.

hank_F_M said...

Louie

It is Obama.s secretplan.

Don't count the states that might vote McCain. Your cousins south of the Red are next.

David Duff said...

I have rather lost track of what you 'colonials' have been up to recently and, like Diodatus above, I am very grateful for your running poll.

I hadn't realised that Obama had opened up such a lead. I realise, without quite understanding the nitty-gritty, that your electoral college system complicates matters somewhat, but what's your gut feeling, Hank? For myself, I always thought McCain stood a better chance against 'Hilbilly' Clinton than 'Oprah' Obama.

hank_F_M said...

David

I suspect the election is Senator Omaha’s to lose, which is possible.

That chart has the advantge of being on link that is updated daily. It’s authors have consistently given a Senator Obama a bigger edge than the other polls. However they all show the same story.

Obama has the”anti-bush” prejudice in his favor.

He has a lot more money.

The mainstream media wants him to win. If you had the misfortune to watch US television you can see it starting. Equal time in the news broadcast. Mc Cain looks good; Obama looks much better. If McCain picks up some votes it will get vicious.

I think that even if the popular vote gives McCain a narrow victory he will lose the Electoral College; each sate is “winner take all” and in the states where he wins he will have many extra votes over the 50% plus one to win the state.

The bright side is the Hillary - Obama split, which opened up deep divisions in the Democratic Party not just personalities. Since European style party discipline is unknown; good Republican Minority leaders will be able to get enough cross over votes to stop the worst of it.

I’ll trade you an Obama and a Clinton of your choice for a glass of good English beer..

David Duff said...

Oh dear, a very young, inexperienced man who is going to have to learn the job on the job - as President of the USA. I shudder!

Still, I am reminded that Pitt the Younger took over at the age of 24 and at the beginning of the highly dangerous French wars and, whilst he made a complete hash of it to begin with, he did learn over time. I realise one shouln't take too seriously what politicians say in an electoral campaign but the thing that frightens me most is his cock-eyed economic policy. If he turns to trade protectionism - sell your stocks and buy gold! It will be the 1930s all over again - and the 1930s led irrevocably (it seems now) to the 1940s.

With that thought, Hank, er, have a nice day!

louielouie said...

If McCain picks up some votes it will get vicious.

i wonder.
i wonder if mccain has what it takes to be potus.
with all the talking head obama surrogates lashing out at mccain, i wonder if the senator realizes that they don't want to just defeat him, they want to destroy him professionally and personally.
the senator has never once, to my knowledge, said that getting shot down qualified him to be potus.
he has always discussed his actions in captivity in the larger sense of service to country.
what has hussein done like that??
nothing like it, and that is what the left loves about him.
i think the senator may realize too late that this is not going to be a civil campaign.

hank_F_M said...

Louie

I think he has what is necessary to be President, much more so than his oppostion, but I'm not sure he can get through that General Election thing.

So far the left has been nice, by there standards. Just wait until he gets a small boost in numbers.

But between a malise in the Republican Party no money to speak of (but I could use a tenth of one oercent of that in my bank account), and being just to much of an officer and gentleman for the South Side Chicago gutter politics that Obama grew up in

It's Obamas to lose. He has done some stupid things so might, but don't put any money on it.

louielouie said...

i agree with what you said hank, but the general election thing is what i was talking about.
it's stuff like this that baffles me.
Obama is making all kinds of openings for McCain to skewer him on his inconsistencies, and McCain is mostly just letting him slide. there was an ad Obama put out about the veterans benefits legislation in Illinois that he took credit for? Turns out he didn't even vote for that bill, let alone write it! If I were McCain, I would have had an ad up before you could say hope n' change.
And debates, .....Obama turned down McCain's challenge for townhall type debates, and at present there aren't even any debates scheduled...I can't imagine why McCain doesn't try to embarrass Obama into committing to at least one by pushing that in public. no tele-prompters allowed.
i could really open myself up to get skewered, but i think so far mccain is running a pretty crappy campaign.

hank_F_M said...

Louie

From Tom Roeser, a Chicago political analyst, who has been following Obama for years.


John McCain is running a considerably lackluster, underfinanced campaign which makes a lot of gaffes--but Republicans should take heart.

The 2008 election for president is not going to be about McCain. It’ll be exclusively about Barack Obama.



To put it another way the National Republican leadership (sic) has written the election off, they don’t like McCain anyway. He is running with no money and the second string political advisors, and with a hostile press.

But it is possible that Senator Obama will step on it. Read Tom’s article he says it better than I can.

David Duff said...

Do I detect a slight closing of the gap on your graph up above?

hank_F_M said...

David

Yes, there is a little movement, it is way to early to say if it is blip or a trend.

McCain came out fighting this morning, he didn’t really say anything new, just said it well with enthusiasm, if he can keep that who knows?

Roy said...

Hank, thanks for the election poll graph, but more than that, the encouragement to keep it civil and intelligent.

But, OMG, isn't Obama so dreamy? And McCain is, like, icky old and stuff.

I stumbled onto my son's Myspace page a couple of weeks ago and it read under the heroes section something along the lines of "anyone who gives a fist pound deserves my vote." Thank God he's only 13. I haven't stopped cringing. I need to have, "the talk" with him--you know, the one about the grand responsbility we have to vote for a candidate based on his merits, blah, blah, blah. I think I'll wait until he can actually vote to have that one though.

Keep it up!

louielouie said...

H,
previously i made a comment about OK not being included in any of the polling data.
so on one of the rasmussen links from your site i e-mailed them and asked them why?
they replied that OK was a forgone conclusion............which i don't quite know..............if i like ths sound of that..........or not............and that they do include OK in the electorial college count.
at least they answered.

on a separate note.
have you seen where pelosi has redefined the churches position on abortion?

hank_F_M said...

Louie

Great minds think alike or some such . . .

See my next post
The Least of These

hank_F_M said...

Louie

Did you look under Indian Territory.

They seem to have corrected their grievous error.

Jeff said...

Hank, very interesting site. I have not scanned throughly throw your site yet, but where do you stand on the candidates. Obama or McCain or undecided?

hank_F_M said...

Jeff

I’m trying to keep this lead post technical rather than partisan.

I think McCain is the best. I had some reservations and still do, but I think even if does something I disagree with he will be attempting to do the right thing based on some understanding of the facts.

I have lived in the shadow of the NE Illinois Democratic (now Demican) political machine most of my life. It may be unfair but I would suspect anyone (with a D or an R by their name) coming out of that machine.

Contrast Governor Palin who quit a six figure job because she refused to be involved in corruption.

Jeff said...

Hank---Interesting. I didn't know that about Senator Palin.

I think she was a good choice. The democrats are walking on thin ice criticising this successful woman. We could have major backlash.

louielouie said...

indian territory

ha.
ha.
that is so funny.
i forgot to laugh.

senator palin

????????????

hank_F_M said...

Louie

Palin looks like a good choice.

louielouie said...

i'm just thinking that the crew of saturday night live might start pulling for mccain/palin.
tina fey would be guaranteed a four year run on the show.

louielouie said...

OT for hank,
i'm getting the impression from reading web postings that the next time a hurricane comes through, people are just not going to leave/evacuate. even with conditions as they are, people not being able to get back in, while people who stayed are able to start cleaning up. the conditions of those who stayed, no elec., water, sewer, gas, must be terrible, the only ones i've heard of/from are those who left and desparately want to go back. viewing KHOU live streaming this week it sounds like the community of seebrook(sp) won't get sewer back for a month.
i'm sure we'll get a firsthand account.
el jefe's book will probably be titled, why i will never name a child of mine ike.

Jeff said...

Hank,

Looks like that bridge may have been at Vetera.

http://thecapitoltribune.blogspot.com/

Jeff said...

Hank,

Thanks for blogrolling me!!

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