Tuesday, May 03, 2011

Osama Bin Laden 1957-2011, RIP

He is dead!

It probably says something about him that this is most likely the only combat action in which he had a personal part, though he directed, caused, and inspired many terrorist acts.

His death will hasten the demise of the Al Quaida as a meaningful entity. AQ is a loose association of groups, some will survive and even prosper, but it will be difficult for anyone else to provide the charisma that held AQ together, especially since the UAV campaigns in Afghanistan and Pakistan have decimated AQ’s leadership. I suspect there will be a slow unraveling of the central organization and the colapse of most of the local organiztions.

What it will mean in Afganistan and Pakistan is difficult to predict, I suspect that AQ will have declining influence. What it will do to the strained Pakistan/US relationship depends on the facts of what role Pakistan supporting and opposing AQ, and more importantly the perception which may have no connection to reality. Probally it will help create a situation where the US can down grade it’s military role.

Hopefully his is one of the last deaths caused by his vision.

Osama Bin Laden, like all of us was a sinner for whom Christ died, we should hope against hope that looking at the bussiness end of an assult rifle he had a genuine death bed conversion.

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